The Capital Baseball League -- Strat-O-Matic

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2020 PICKS GRID

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CBL RULEBOOK - Feb 2020 edition

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Rolz.org dice room used for drafts

DRAFT ORDER
--pre lottery--
includes tie breaker for 87 win teams

Suggestions for submitting results:

(1) start off with the team nickname "at" other team's nickname.
Don't use the city in the top line. (2) Keep it short - one or two sentences per game
OR one paragraph for the series.
(3) PLEASE USE " at " rather " @ " and don't capitalize the A in "at"
(4) Put the series results in THE BODY OF THE EMAIL not just in the subject

Ungulates 4-A's 3

Game 1: Should be a pitcher’s dule with Zack Greinke vs Justin Verlander. It was for 3 scoreless innings, then Ronald Guzman crushed a homer for a 1-0 Armbrust lead. Pete Alonso answered in the bottom of the inning to tie it up. Then in the bottom of the 5th, a series of events unfolded which would become a recurring theme for the A’s.
The A’s had a significant advantage in the fielding ratings with 1’s & 2’s everywhere while the Ungulates mainly featured 3’s. But with 2 outs, Guzman botched a grounder. Mike Yaz & Xander Bogaerts singled to load the bases. Pete Alonso stepped to the plate and stroked a Grand Slam and a 5-1 Arrickdale lead. Two innings later, again with 2 outs, Yaz singled, Bogaerts walked, and Greinke seemed out of the inning enticing Alonso to hit a comebacker. But the Gold Glove pitcher fumbled it to load the bases. He walked Harrison Bader to force in a run. Then Edwin Encarnacion uncorked the second Grand Slam of the game off Greinke to lead the Ungulates to a 10-1 victory. 9 of the runs were unearned!!!

Game 2: Pablo Lopez vs Walker Buehler. In opening stanza, Austin Meadows homered and Josh Bell doubled in a run to post Armbrust to an early 2-0 lead. This proved short-lived as Cavan Biggio led off with a homer and Yaz nailed a 2-run shot later in the inning for a 3-2 Arrickdale lead. Doubles by Austin Meadows, Anthony Rendon, and another RBI from Bell gave the advantage back to the A’s 5-3. In the bottom of the fourth, homers by Brandon Lowe, Francisco Mejia, & a 2-run shot by Bogaerts lifted the Ungulates to a 7-5 advantage. Yaz and Alonso homered later in the game to raise the tally to 7 homers as Arrickdale again prevailed.

Game 3: Jack Flaherty vs Sandy Alcantara in Armbrust. Top of 3rd, Bogaerts doubles with 2 outs. Next play, Rendon commits a 2 base error to allow another unearned run. In the bottom of the 5th, with the bases loaded and 2 outs, Jorge Polanco singled in a run but Yaz threw out Lorenzo Cain at home on a 1-18 play, sending Jim Loyet through the roof as he argued with the umpire vociferously, getting ejected over all the unearned runs and poor roll luck. The Strat gods heeded the warning as in the bottom of the 9th, Rendon homered to win the game 2-1.

Game 4: Shane Bieber vs Brandon Woodruff. Bottom of the first, the fired up A’s led off with a Polanco homer. Brandon Lowe answered with his own shot in the 2nd and then misfortune struck Armbrust again in the top of the 3rd when Lopez balked and then wild pitched in the go ahead run. The A’s resiliency continued as Josh Bell doubled home a pair in the bottom of the frame for a 3-2 Armbrust lead. In the top of the 5th, a Yasmani Grandal throwing error on Cameron Maybin’s steal attempt allowed Maybin to score on Brock Holt’s single. Biggio doubled in Holt for a 4-3 Ungulate advantage. With top card Tyler Glasnow on the mound, Matt Beagle felt like he could cruise it home. But after walking Rendon to open the 9th, Glasnow yielded a monstrous 2-run homer to Josh Bell and suddenly the series was tied 2-2.

Game 5: Verlander vs Grienke: With 2 outs in the bottom of the 3rd, Lorenzo Cain unleased a 3-run shot to power the A’s offensive attack. Pete Alonso answered with a solo shot the next inning, but Greinke, Raisel Iglesias, and Anthony Bass combined to thwart any attempt at a comeback as Armbrust won 3-1. Verlander’s 2-hit 18 strikeout complete game went to waste. It was Matt Beagle’s turn to question how 2 homers beat his suddenly lifeless offense as the A’s only needed one more win to upset the Ungulates.

Game 6: Sean Newcomb vs Beuhler: Pitcher’s duel until bottom of the 7th. Newcomb & Blake Parker held Arrickdale to 2 hits while Beuhler held Armbrust to 3. With one out, Harrison Bader walked off Ken Ryan and Scott Kingery doubled him in for the lead. After 2 more walks to load the bases, Robinson Chirinos singled off Raisel Iglesias to extend the lead. Iglesias then hit Alonso to force in another run. Yaz singled in 2 more runs off of Adam Kolarek to make the final score 5-0.

Game 7: Alcantara vs Flaherty: Josh Bell gave the A’s a 2-run lead on a dinger in the top of the 1st. With one out in bottom of 2nd, Anthony Rendon made another 2-base error. Cameron Maybin then delivered a single to tie the score. After Alcantara fanned Mejia, Biggio singled and series MVP Xander Bogaerts launched a 3-run shot to make it 5-2 on 5 more unearned runs resulting from a Rendon error! Yaz went deep the next inning making it a comfortable 6-2 lead for the Ungulates. Not so fast as in the 5th, Ronald Guzman, who seemed to walk more than Forrest Gump, launched a solo shot. Two batters later Yasmani Grandal did the same and it was a 6-4 ballgame. The A’s came within one run as a single, walk, and wild pitch set up a run scoring grounder by Jason Heyward. Tyler Glasnow came on to quell the rally. Then in the top of the 9th, Eduardo Escobar and perennial pest Guzman singled. Right fielder Scott Kingery made a great catch of a Lorenzo Cain flyout, allowing the runners to advance. Matt Beagle kept the infield back as Yasmani Grandal approached the plate against Ken Giles. Beagle was willing to give up the tying run but not the go ahead run so he kept his infield back. Giles whiffed Grandal and enticed Jorge Polanco to fly out to left to preserve a 6-5 triumph and a series victory.

The key to the series was the whopping 14 unearned runs Armbrust allowed after 7 errors. Overall, their .724 X% was not bad but the Ungulates took advantage of those extra outs. Arrickdale outscored the A’s 36-21 so that was clearly the difference. Xander Bogaerts was MVP with a .292 average with a pair of homers, including the clincher, 6 R & RBI’s. Pete Alonzo hit 4HR with 7 RBI’s and 5 runs scored but only hit .182. Yaz hit 3 RH with 5RBI’s & 6 runs. Ungulate hurlers held Armbrust batters to a .189 average. Anthony Rendon hit .458 and Josh Bell hit 2 HR driving in 8. Arrickdale outhomered the A’s 14-9.

Puckered Penguins 4 and Hurricanes 3

Gm 1: Penguins led 5-1 after 5 innings, only to see the lead disappear on HR's from Martinez and Yelich when the 'Canes scored 5 in the 7th. Penguins tied it in the home half of the inning, but 'Canes scored what proved to be the winning run in the 8th. To make things worse. Penguins lost Trevor Story due to injury for the next game. Hurricanes won the opener 7-6.

Gm 2: Hurricanes jumped all over Penguins' starter, Kyle Hendricks, scoring 7 times (4 unearned) in the first 2 innings. Wanting to preserve the pen, Hendricks took one for the team in the 11-1 trouncing. Uncharacteristically, Penguins made 5 errors leading to 6 unearned runs! This one was ugly, and the Hurricanes took away any whisper of home field advantage heading to Boynton Beach with a commanding 2-0 lead in games. Yelich, Gurriel, and Kendrick all homered for the visitors.

Gm 3: Things were looking bad for the Penguins moving to the slugger friendly Boynton Beach ballpark. No surprise, Hurricanes jumped out to a 9-4 lead. But then the Penguins found their bats and got into the 'Cane pen. Penguins got their first win of the series with an 11-10 come from behind win.

Gm 4: German started for the 'Canes, and right before the game started, Troy said, "you never know what you're going to get with this guy." German pitched into the 5th, but gave up 4 HR's. Penguins' SP, Waugespack, wasn't any better, and the game was tied at 6 after 5 innings. Penguins found another gear and scored in 6 of the 9 innings, and tied the series at 2 games each with a 10-6 victory. Story went deep twice. dReliever, Sims was the losing pitcher for the second consecutive game,

Gm 5: In this crucial game for both teams, Hurricanes erupted as their powerful lineup can do. This time off Penguins' ace, Ryu. It was quite a display with the home team scoring 14 runs on 16 hits. The final was 14-4, and the 'Canes carried a 3-2 win advantage going back to McMurdo, where they had won both games 1 & 2.

Gm 6: Kyle Hendricks took the bump still licking his wounds from game 2 when he wasn't very good and the defense had completely collapsed behind him. But this was the "good" Hendricks; he pitched into the 7th, and allowed 3 runs on 7 hits before turning things over to the pen. Another team effort - Olson hit his 4th dinger of the series. Penguins won it 5-1 forcing a deciding game 7
.
Gm 7: Just as tight and exciting as you would want it to be. 'Canes got off to a quick start scoring a pair in the top of the 1st. Penguins answered with a run in the home half of the inning. In the home half of the 2nd, Story launched a 3 run shot to give the Penguins a 4-2 lead. It was all the home team would need. 'Canes scored a single run in the 5th, and that was the end of the scoring. Penguins won it 4-3. Trent Thornton wasn't great, but he gave the Penguins 6 solid innings to get the win.

ROGUES SWEEP LARKS - WIN IN 4 GAMES

Raleigh won all four games by 1 run. All games played via NetPlay.

Gm1-Joey Gallo hit a 2 run walk off homerun in the bottom of the ninth to give the Rogues an 8-7 win in a wild game that featured 7 homeruns. The Larks broke on top in the first as Victor Reyes blasted a homerun on the first pitch of the ballgame. Ketel Marte answered in the bottom of the first with a lead off homerun, also off the first pitch offered by the Larks starter. The Larks appeared to have blown the game open in the third with a 5 spot, knocking 21 game winner Aaron Nola out of the game. A walk, a single and a poorly played bunt loaded the bases with no outs for the Larks. Trey Mancini blasted a 3 run double to take advantage of the situation. 2 outs later Kevin Newman launched a 2 run homer to make it 6-1 and send Nola packing. The Rogues bounced back in the bottom of the inning when Keston Hiura blasted his first of 2 homers in the game with a man on to cut the lead to 6-3 after 3. The Rogues tied it in the 4th with Hiura's second homer, a 3 run clout to tie it. Hunter Dozier hit a solo homerun in the 5th to give the lead back to the Larks, where it stood at 7-6 until the ninth. With two outs and no one on in the bottom of the 9th, Cody Bellinger smashed a double off the right centerfield wall. Bill Evitt pulled Petit who allowed only Bellinger's double in 1.2 innings and brought on Matt Barnes to face Joey Gallo. Gallo blasted the sixth pitch over the centerfield wall for the Rogues walk off victory. The first four batters in the Rogues lineup had 2 hits apiece, while Hiura contributed 5 RBI Reyes and Schoop had 2 hits each in the loss.

Gm2-The Larks broke on top again with 4 in the first off Sonny Gray, taking advantage of 2 errors and a passed ball. All runs were unearned. Gray settled down and struck out 2 to end the nightmare start. He ended the game with 10 strikeouts over 6 innings. The Rogues cut into the lead in the second with 2 runs after a Hiura single and Harper double, were plated by 2 ground outs. 2 more were added to tie the score in the 5th on Bellinger's 2 run double. Keston Hiura was a hero again, as he cracked his third homerun in 2 games leading off the bottom of the 6 to give the Rogues a 5-4 lead. After that the bullpens took over and no runs were scored, however the Larks made it interesting in the 9th by loading the bases on a two out double, a walk and a hit batter. Sergio Romo was summoned to face Cron and struck him out to win the contest. Rogues win 5-4. Hiura and Bellinger had 2 hits, while Donovan Solano had 3 hits for the Larks

Gm3-Rogues take the lead in the first on Gallo's 2 run homer. Rizzo singled in a run in the bottom of the frame. The Rogues added to their lead with solo homeruns by McCann and Bellinger in the 5th and 6th hosting a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the 6th when the Larks tied the score with a 3 spot highlighted by Cron's 2 run blast. In the 7th Mike Moustakas hit a one out solo homerun to take the lead back to where it stood until the end. Hendricks came on with 2 on and no outs in the 8th and retired 2 on strikeouts and a grounder to end the threat. Rogues win again 5-4.

Gm4-Yu Darvish was in top form until injured in the 7th. He allowed only 4 hits and 1 run with 10 strikeouts and 2 walks, and of course a homerun (Dozier). Rogues took the lead in the 2nd on a single by Harper, a steal of 2nd where the catcher threw the ball into the outfield, landing him on 3rd. He scored on Moustakas 2 out single. The Rogues added to the lead on Jay Bruce's sacrifice fly in the 4th. The Larks cut the lead in half in the bottom of the inning on Dozier's homerun. No real threats by either team the rest of the way, as Houser ended with 6 innings 7 hits 2 runs, 1 earned, 2 walks and 10 strikeouts. Marshal and Oberg retired all by 1 over the final 3 frames. After Darvish's injury, Hudson got the final out of the 7th. Britton retired the first 5 he faced and gave up a 2 out single in the 9th. Hendricks was called in and closed the game and the series on a ground out.

Rogues scored 20 runs, hit .254 with 9 homeruns and a 3.00 ERA

Larks scored 16 runs, hit .224, with 5 homeruns and a 4.93 ERA

Bellinger .438, 3 doubles, 1 homerun, 2 rbi

Hiura .364, 3 homeruns, 6 rbi

Gallo .333, 2 homeruns, 4 rbi

Hendricks 2 saves, 5 innings pitched 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 6 strikeouts

Reyes .364, hr, rbi

Schoop .333 2 doubles

Dozier .308, 2 homeruns, 3 rbi

COMETS DEFEAT MITTS IN 5 GAMES

Managers may trade draft picks for the next free agent draft only. As soon as the free agent draft begins, picks for the subsequent draft may be traded. A manager may trade as many of his draft picks as he wishes, but must have at least six draft picks at all times, two of which must be in the fourth round or earlier.

WE PLAY FOR THIS PRIZE

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HERE'S A THREAD I STARTED AT STRAT FAN FORUM ON FRIDAY

I just noticed that Clint Frazier who is a RF-5 LF-5 in the current card set is one of three candidates for the AL Gold Glove in rightfield.

It's been my impression that the game company is reluctant to move players more than one grade per year so that even though Frazier's fielding numbers like UZR and UZR/150 are great I was guessing they'd bump him two grades and give him a RF-3 rating.

Were he to win the GG I think the company will go as far as making him a RF-2. Might he get a 1 ?

I'm wondering whether anyone has ever gone from a 5 one year to a 1 the next year at any position.

One of the replies:

Not full-time guys, but I found two on computer game:

Oris Hockett
1938 (BRN 70 AB): cf-5e25(+1),lf-5e25
1939 (BRN 13 AB): cf-1e9(0),rf-1e9,lf-1e9

Willy Miranda
1951 (WAA 9 AB): ss-5e88
1952 (CHA 161 AB): ss-1e29

That's all I found from a 5 to a 1.

Update: found one from a 1 to a 5:

George McBride
1919 (WAA 40 AB): ss-1e50
1920 (WAA 41 AB): ss-5e29

I'll see if I can find how many 4's to a 1, and visa versa. Probably a lot.

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If It’s October, Justin Turner Must Be Raking

IN PRAISE OF JUSTIN TURNER

I see that Justin Turner made some kind of amazing defensive play in Sunday night's playoff game between his Dodgers and the Braves. It got me to thinking about this long time Mitt and how he morphed from somewhat useful piece part to a solid cog in the Mitts' offensive scheme.

Admittedly his offense was not all that great for the 2020 Mitts. He never seemed to get on track and with his 745 OPS for the 2020 Dodgers he doesn't figure to offer much for the 2021 Mitts.

Yet look how far he's come. I went back to the 2013 CBL draft when he became a Mitt in its 6th round. That round looked like this:

Lookiing back on how I'd rated him it was actually pretty bad. On my 0-9 scale he only received a 3. Many years I can do an entire draft class without having to draft a guy with that low a rating. In fact the biggest selling point Turner had at the time was a rating at SS which the Mitts needed for backup purposes and legality.

Here's the comments section on him.

I ended up slotting Turner behind Sogard but Sogie was drafted in round 5 anyway.

And here's what Justin's Mitt career has looked like.

While we're all searching for superstars we also realize that a nucleus of solid performers is also necessary. I'd say this 6th round draft pick has been that and a lot more.

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CRIERS' OFFENSE IS KEY TO BIG REGULAR SEASON LEAD

There are just two more 6-game series to go in the SBA's regular season. Smithtown Criers with a 100-50 record leads two 91 win teams. While the Crier pitching has been sound, a bit above average, the following graphic shows some real dominance when it comes to putting points on the board.

The lead in runs scored is very impressive. Clouting over 300 HRs is also something especially when you consider that the Criers do not have any HR hitter in the top 12 of the league. Judge leads the team with 34 dingers but the team has a host of guys clustered between 15 and 29 homers.

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THE LITTLE CRIER WHO COULDN'T

When your team has won 2/3 of its games and on a path to the top seed in the playoffs you don't have much of a leg to stand on carping about how a player has underperformed. And yet carp I must.

Blithely ignoring the fact that Clint Frazier is batting .309 with power (how'd that happen?) and others have played better than their cards suggest (like Aquino with 28 HRs in 175 ABs) I point the finger at one Aledmys Diaz. This player never got the memo that this is the Criers' year to soar instead hitting like he's tanking for a good draft pick.

That box says pretty much everything that needs saying. I don't expect him to bat .271 for the Criers given the fact that he's in an 18 team environment, but how about .240? I am not looking for an 823 OPS but 586 is totally poopy.

By the numbers on their cards according to Lamanna it should be Diaz being most effective against righthanded pitching.

But it's almost like a deal was made: "here Clint you take my batting average and you Aristedes can have all my HR power, and I'll take all of your outs"

Over the years I've had the probably mistaken impression that the game is using a different card for a player than what Lamanna's breakdown has shown. The import of that is that I'd be inclined in a playoff environment to give Asdrubal Cabrera a start at 3B against a righty over Aledmys simply because Diaz just never hits for the 2020 Criers even though his card is clearly better vs righties than Drubal's.

CRIERS EQUALLY POTENT AT HOME AND AWAY

On Tuesday the NetPlay 6 game series between the team with the SBA's best record, the Smithtown Criers, and the team with the league's 2nd best record, the Rushmore Red Doggs had a surprising result. The Doggs loaded up with lefties against Jake Arrieta so won the first game. Then the Criers won the next five, some in dramatic come from behind fashion.

This gives the Criers an almost insurmountable lead in both the division and in the race for the #1 playoff seed.

The graphic shows that the Criers are winning 2 of every 3 games and doing so equally proficiently at home and away. The offense is churing out more than 6 runs per game and out-homering the opposition by a 3:2 margin.

I knew this was going to be a good Criers team but it has exceeded my expectations.

HOW IMPROVED WAS CLINT FRAZIER'S DEFENSE?

Trying to figure out what Strat-O-Matic will do with a player's defensive grade is a fool's errand, the equivalent of playing 3-card-Monte. And yet we all try and must try in order to evaluate our respective teams before the official numbers partially seep out in December and fully do so a few weeks later.

The Crier Clint Frazier has had an interesting defensive journey so far in his young career. He started out as a LF/RF 3 in the 2017 major league season. In 2018 his 41 plate appearances didn't get him a card. In 2019 he went the full Matt Kemp/Nick Castellanos route and earned 5's in both outfield corners.

And then he spent the offseason working hard on his defense. This seemingly has paid off if you believe in defensive numbers.

First let's view his career line. These stats come from FanGraphs.

To be clear, I don't think the guys at SOM use these stats as part or all of their thinking when it comes to their issuing of grades. It's just that there is some correlation between that DEF column and how the grades often come out. One could make the case looking at this that Frazier should have been a 4 or 5 back in 2017 but I believe the game company is influenced by how good a team the guy plays for so as to get that team to win at its expected rate in a replay situation.

While that rating of -0.3 is still a tad below average it is one I would normally associate with a grade of 3, or at worst, a 4.

I think UZR is also instructive.

Frazier played a bit in LF too but the sample size is too small to consider. I'd be surprised if they give him a different ratingin left than they do in RF in the next set of cards.

These UZR numbers are very good - in fact I'd imagine some RF-2 guys won't have numbers this good.

So this puts Frazier all over the map. I do think SOM prefers to avoid 2 or more step jumps in either direction. So that would lead one to think that they might just promote him to a RF-4. In this case the numbers are pretty compelling. My guess/hope/prediction is that Frazier will be a 3 in both corners. Time will tell.

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Jordan- rules coordinator
Mark - representing West division
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Bob- representing South division

The members of the CBL will never forget our friend and charter member Mac McConchie

SOME HELPFUL LINKS

Strat Fan Forum - the SOM Online Community

Programming the computer mgr in SOM

SOMWORLD

MLB Trade Rumors

Baseball Reference.com

where to get Team Viewer software

glossary of baseball stats

Online Ballparks Museum

Lamanna's Baseball Bulletin

Strat-o-Sphere

John Skilton's Baseball Links Page

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